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| Preface
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MAIN ISSUE:
In the preface of "The Skeptical
Environmentalist", Lomborg purports to scrutinize the claims put
forward by the American economist Julian Simon. Lomborg says that in
February 1997, he happened to read an interview with Simon in Wired Magazine. The Wired article
is available on the internet here.
By reading the article, one will find many phrases and expressions that
are very similar to what Lomborg now says in his book. For instance.
the Wired article says:
"There´s just one problem with
The Litany, just one slight little wee imperfection: every item . . .
is false. Incorrect. At variance with the truth."
Compare this with Lomborg´s text on page 4:
"We know the Litany . .. . There is
just one problem: it does not seem to be backed up by the available
evidence."
Other sentences from the Wired article
that mirror what Lomborg writes, are for instance:
"Simon started off as a card-carrying antigrowth, antipopulation
zealot."
"Whenever he presents any data, his practice is to present the figures
going all the way back to day one. . . You have to focus on aggregate
trends over the long term, he insists."
"His statistics, his claims, come from the "official" sources, the
standard reference works that everyone uses."
"Test for yorself the assertion that the physical conditions of
humanity have gotten better."
"For each of Simon´s claims that I checked, the data in those
volumes were identical to his."
"The world is not coming to an end. Things are not running out. Time is
not short. So, smile! Shout! Enjoy the afternoon!"
Actually, in the left column of page
4, Lomborg brings what is essentially a short summary of the Wired
article; but only those who check note 10 will see that the term "The
Litany" was coined by the author of that article.
In many ways, Lomborg´s book is a repetition and extension of
Julian Simon´s ideas, not a critical testing of Simon´s
assertions. Lomborg writes on p. xix that when he and his students
examined Simon, they found that "not everything he said was correct".
However, not a single place in "The Skeptical Environmentalist" are we
told where exactly Simon was wrong. Instead, there are several places
in Lomborg´s book where he uses Simon as a source for his own
assertions - which of course is completely against the purported idea
of testing whether Simon is right. This is the case in chapters 11, 16
and 20 of Lomborg´s book. Also, many parts of his biodiversity
chapter (chapter 23) are taken uncritically from Simon.
In conclusion, when Lomborg declares in the preface that he wants to
examine if Simon is right, this is not true. Nowhere in his book does
Lomborg mark any disagreement or dissociation vis-a-vis Simon, and
instead he repeatedly rests on Simon and even uses Simon as a source.
"I´m an old left-wing Greenpeace member". Error: Lomborg has - allegedly - paid contributions to Greenpeace, but he has never been a member of Greenpeace, and he has never worked actively in the organization. It is correct, however, that before 1997 he had been concerned about environmental questions.
P. xix right: GROUNDLESS DEROGATION
"To begin with, I was surprised that the only reaction from many
environmental groups was the gut reaction of complete denial." Error: Lomborg tries to
impart the impression that his opponents "to begin with" only reacted
with complete denial and did not counter his data, i.e. that his
opponents had no serious matter-of-fact criticism. This is completely
wrong. The first debate between Lomborg and his opponents was that on
the internet page `Katastrofen aflyst´ (the disaster is called
off), which was established by the newspaper Politiken as a medium for
discussing Lomborg´s first four articles. One of Lomborg´s
opponents here was the chairman of the Danish department of WWF, and he
protested against Lomborg´s claim that the global forest area has
been roughly constant since about 1950. He said that Lomborg used data
from FAO which are unreliable and which include areas with as
little as 10 % tree cover. Lomborg tried to defend himself by claiming
that areas with 10 % tree cover are what he would consider to be
"forest". He dismissed other data series which show a declining trend
for the global forest area, but failed to give a good reason to dismiss
these. Another opponent, experienced in problems in the Third World,
protested against Lomborg´s postulate that "Indeed, an analysis
from the World Bank shows that pollution in general declines when a
society becomes sufficiently rich that it can afford to worry about the
environment." This opponent tried to dig up Lomborg´s source and
found that the World Bank study dealt with only 10 indicators of
pollution, whereas many important types of pollution were not included
(a further scrutiny of the World Bank study shows that only few of the
10 indicators follow that pattern postulated by Lomborg). These
examples show that already the first criticisms discussed data in
detail and challenged Lomborg´s use or misuse of these
data. Furthermore, they were not `complete denials´. But Lomborg
replied only to few criticisms, and left the discussion altogether
without having countered the factual criticism. Instead, he wrote
articles in the newspaper - and had the editor-in-chief to write such
articles also - which claimed that nobody had raised any serious
criticism. At the same time, the editor-in-chief systematically
rejected the most serious reader´s letters. Thus, the whole story
was arranged so as to promote Lomborg´s provocations and unarm
his opponents.
This is what happened "to begin with", and this is obviously complete
different from Lomborg´s version in the preface in which he
claims that complete denial was the only
reaction. Lomborg´s version is so distorted and so far from the
truth that it counts here as a deliberate
error.