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The complaints to UVVU
In a newspaper article in January that year, I
had claimed that Lomborg´s books and "kronik"s were
all falsification, and that there was a need to set up a
committee of neutral scientists that could evaluate whether my
claims were correct. I did not then know that a permanent
committee of this kind already existed. These are bodies under
the Danish Ministry for Science called the Danish Committees for
Scientific Dishonesty (DCSD). In this document I shall use its
Danish acronym, UVVU (Udvalgene Vedrørende Videnskabelig
Uredelighed).
One day before the deadline referred to above,
i.e. on Feb. 20th 2002, I was contacted independently by two
people who both urged me to lodge a complaint about Lomborg to
UVVU. One of them was the person who was in contact with Stuart
Pimm in USA, and Pimm had also been urged to lodge a complaint.
In the afternoon of the same day, I received a
telephone call from a journalist at Politiken, who asked if it
were true that I had lodged a complaint. I referred him to Stuart
Pimm, and then realized that I would have to make the complaint
now. As I already had a great deal of documentation demonstrating
that Lomborg deliberately manipulated data, I was able to work
through the whole night to formulate the complaint. Before noon
on the next day the complaint was handed over to the secretary of
UVVU, and a copy was delivered to the office that received the
applications referred to above. The date of the first complaint
was thus 21th Feb. 2002.
UVVU undertook to process the complaint, and
the procedure was now as follows: after I had sent additional
comments, the UVVU passed on a copy of my complaint to Lomborg.
Lomborg wrote a rebuttal. I received a copy of this, and wrote my
comments on it, after which Lomborg wrote his comments on my
comments. This procedure was finished by May, and in June the
UVVU held a meeting where they decided what to do with this
information.
The lodging of my complaint was widely
covered by printed and electronic media. Without my knowledge,
this had inspired another complaint, which was submitted to UVVU
by Henrik Stiesdal and his wife Mette Hertz on 7th March 2002.
This complaint mainly documented that Lomborg had deliberately
lied in his public correspondance on climate issues. More on the
contents of this complaint can be read here.
A third complaint was lodged by Stuart Pimm
and Jeff Harvey on 22nd March. This was done in close cooperation
with me. Their complaint consisted mainly of the reviews of TSE
published by the Union of Concerned Scientists and by Scientific
American, supplemented with 6 pages of text directed at UVVU.
All these complaints were treated in the same
way by UVVU, i.e. they invited Lomborg to write rebuttals, and
the complainers to write their counterattacks.
A fourth complaint, dealing with issues of
global warming, was submitted to UVVU on 22nd Nov. 2002 by Torben
Stockfleth Jørgensen. This was so late, however, that UVVU
refused to handle it.
At this point, it will hardly be a surprise
that there was not the slightest move towards mutual
understanding during the hearing process. As ever before, Lomborg
completely refused to admit any flaws at all, and the
complainers, on their side, admitted only minor misunderstandings
in their letters.
The UVVU thus had the difficult task of
deciding who should be believed.
UVVU consists of a chairman, who is a high
court judge, and three committees, viz. one on medical sciences,
one on natural sciences, and one on social sciences. Each of
these has four members and four deputies. All are recognised
scientists.
At its meeting in June 2002, UVVU decided that
the case should be decided by all the members and deputies of all
three committees, making a total of 24 scientists from very
differing scientific fields, plus the chairman. First, the case
was studied by a sub-committee consisting of five members, viz.
three from the social sciences committee and one from each of the
two other committees. This "working party" concentrated
on an evaluation of the reviewing process in Scientific American.
The case was then processed by all 24 members sitting together.
The decision was made in December 2002, and was announced in
public on 7th Jan. 2003. Lomborg was informed about the decision
on 6th Jan. 2003, which happened to be his birthday.
The document detailing the conclusions of the
UVVU could be said to comprise more than 600 pages. This is
because they decided that all documents in the case be a part of
the conclusion. In the words of UVVU, they did not want to record
the extremely extensive correspondence in detail, so instead,
they deemed it "fit to present not only the . . . summary
but the complaints in full, complete with appendices, so that as
an appendix to this ruling, incl. the discussions in Scientific
American, they form part of the description of the case. The same
applies to Bjørn Lomborg´s replies to the complaints. The
interested public will thus be granted an opportunity to have
full access to the facts of the case."
UVVU´s own text thus comprises
"only" 16 pages. Much of it is a review of the debate
in Scientific American. The reasoning for this is that the
evaluation process had actually already been carried out there:
Lomborg´s claims in his books, the review by four experts,
Lomborg´s rebuttal, and a final evaluation made mainly by the
editor of S.A. The Danish committee members did not feel able to
add anything substantial to this evaluation. They felt convinced
already from this that Lomborg had indeed used selective data and
thus that his presentation did not present a true picture. Some
members voiced the view that this was not enough. If UVVU
provided new expert evaluations, these might potentially lead to
the conclusion that Lomborg´s bias was due to deliberate
manipulation. However, UVVU ended up with the easier conclusion,
namely that new experts would scarcely be able to add new
dimensions to the case. "A crucial role has also been played
by the fact that even on the existing basis there is agreement at
DCSD in adjudging the defendant´s conduct to be contrary to good
scientific practice . . ".
So, on this basis, UVVU ended up by concluding
that what Lomborg had written in TSE was misleading, and by
describing him as "objectively dishonest", i .e
dishonest when evaluated by an external standard. They also
judged that he was guilty of systematic bias in his choice of
data and line of argument, thereby acting at variance with what
they call "good scientific practice". On the other
hand, they did not feel able to prove that his bias was
deliberate, and therefore do not describe him as
"subjectively dishonest" (that is dishonest even
relative to his own information). In their words: "In
consideration of the extraordinarily wide-ranging scientific
topics dealt with by the defendant without having any special
scientific expertise . . DCSD has not found - or felt able to
procure - sufficient grounds to deem that the defendant has
misled his readers deliberately or with gross negligence".
Thus, although the ruling of UVVU was a
serious blow for Lomborg, UVVU did not go as far as proving that
he had deliberately misled. This was unsatisfactory, especially
to Kåre Fog and Henrik Stiesdal, who had done a great deal of
work to provide evidence that Lomborg himself knew that what he
wrote was not true. The many items of evidence presented by these
complainers were actually completely ignored by UVVU. UVVU
reviewed the matters discussed in the S.A. debate but, apart from
this, they did not go into detail on any specific issues. They
did not in any way state whether they believed that Lomborg was
right, or the complainers were right, in any of the many issues
where the opinions differed completely. There was thus no
description of exactly what statements in Lomborg´s book were
untrue.
It is difficult to understand why UVVU
refused to adjudicate on those allegations that most seriously
attacked Lomborg´s honesty. One possibility is that some members
felt pity for him and thought that, considering that Lomborg was
not an expert in the fields that he writes about, the verdict was
hard enough as it was. There is also a more sinister possibility,
however. According to a source of information that I believe to
be reliable, at least two members of UVVU had been exposed to
severe threats, and these threats had an influence on the final
decision.
Please notice that central documents in
the case may be downloaded here.
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